So much about Expert Predictions

Professor Philip Tetlock from the University of California did a study of 82,361 forecasts by 284 people who made their living making forecasts. What he found was that “Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world, in other words, are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys.”

There’s a common misunderstanding among all the human beings who have ever been born on the earth that the best way to live is to try to avoid pain and just try to get comfortable. You can see this even in insects and animals and birds. All of us are the same.

A much more interesting, kind, adventurous, and joyful approach to life is to begin to develop our curiosity, not caring whether the object of our inquisitiveness is bitter or sweet. To lead a life that goes beyond pettiness and prejudice and always wanting to make sure that everything turns out on our own terms, to lead a more passionate, full, and delightful life than that, we must realize that we can endure a lot of pain and pleasure for the sake of finding out who we are and what this world is, how we tick and how our world ticks, how the whole thing just is.

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Sindhutai Sapkal-What Personality! Wish I could translate as powerfully what she said in marathi …about finding the light within you so that even if winds of fate blow out the other candles in your life, you can still find a way out of the darkness…lost is translation…but hope you get the whiff of the essence…